Difference of specific account (no withholding) and general account

A securities company can make the account of three patterns of "withholding a particular account Yes No or" and "general account". If opened in "There withholding" tax return is no longer required, and does not have to deviate from the exemption for dependents to be provided much. On the other hand, and that cash flow is reduced because they are withheld 10% of the gain on the sale for each transaction, taken a tax or as an annual 200,000 yen or less (can be on duty-free and if the remaining two of the account), disadvantages etc. I have also.

In it is the difference between the rest of the "no specific account-withholding" of "general account". From a conclusion, specific features that are only in the general account two main Tsude, Moreover, since such things there is no both practicality, there is no benefit to make the general account.

As a general account specific features, The first is to use a "special case of deemed acquisition cost". This is that if you want to sell the shares that had been held from the previous end of September 2001, can be the acquisition amounts to "80% of the closing price share price of October 1, 2001".

Requires a tax return as a principle in the general account, but by comparing the actual purchase price at that time, the deemed acquisition cost, and I can select a cheaper price. This is not to a particular account, it is the merit of only the general account. However, this "special case of deemed acquisition cost" has become a limited time through the end of 2010, I will not be available after that. Therefore 1 claws of benefits, will soon become a meaningless.

The second feature is, only if the sale amount of 1 times more than the 300,000 yen, is that the information is submitted to the tax office from securities company (payment record). To put it the other way around, if the following transactions 300,000 yen once, the tax office is that it can not grasp your stock trading. Regardless without Ali withholding in the case of specific account, because a thing called "specific account annual trade report" that describes all of the transaction will be submitted to the tax office, has been aware of all of the transactions.

In the case of the general account (and without a specific account, withholding), the following cases of profit ¥ 200,000 per year total, tax return is not required, the amount of the tax will be waived. But by repeating the following retail trading 300,000 yen, and profit exceeds 200,000 yen, but is obliged to tax in the tax return and normally occurs, it is because they are not understood in the tax office and would be able to "ignore" you.

Of course, securities company itself because you have to understand all your records of transactions, I will also be considered if the go is news to the tax office. However, using multiple securities company, if the total exceeds the 200,000 yen, I do not know the tax office and ....

... But this is why early story is "tax evasion". If the tax investigation is done, because you discovered easily, such as tax evasion in your stock trading, this feature is also not the still of the general account benefits. Yuka door, it does not do is to tax evasion.

With that said, the benefits to open a general account does not have anything. Shouldering the risk of tax returns but, people and you want to use maximize the cash flow of securities account, people who want to enjoy the Ekizei the case of annual profit ¥ 200,000 or less I may be set to "no specific account-withholding" . Those who do not is it is best to obediently "There levy specific account-source".

How tax of equity investment is tax-exempt

You need to choose whether "specific account" or "general account" when you open an account in securities company. And in particular account There are two types of "no withholding" and "There withholding". People who are already opening an account, you should see a lot of people have to "Yes collection specific account-source". In this way, because there is no need for tax return even increase how much profits.

"No withholding" is seemingly benefits is no unlikely, but in fact it also has one advantage. Although not well known, if the equity investment of the income year total less than 200,000 yen, tax return I no longer needed ... ie duty free.

In more detail, tax equity investments, and to calculate the tax rate in conjunction with the salary income as miscellaneous income "general taxation", by the amount of the equity investment to calculate the tax rate individually has become that you can choose the "declaration separate taxation" you.

In the case of general taxation (specific account, withholding no collection & general account), profit of equity investments are as "miscellaneous income", calculates the tax rate by summing and salary income, you will need to file a final tax return yourself. Since the tax rate depends on the person's income, 50% if the person of the highest tax rate (income 18 million or more), you 10% is imposed even the most cheap people. However miscellaneous income is unnecessary declaration's year less than 200,000 yen, ie profit of equity investment There are benefits to become "tax-exempt (Tax zero)" if less than 200,000 yen.

On the other hand, "there collection specific account-source" Many people choose to become a separate self-assessment taxation, tax is calculated as 10% in uniform. However, in the case of filing separate taxation, even for a total annual profit of less than ¥ 200,000, automatically 10% worth it if a particular account will be deducted. If for example the annual profit is barely of 190,000 yen, but taken automatically the tax of 19,000 yen if a particular account, and if the general account and declaration becomes unnecessary, it is a translation that 19,000 yen is a "tax-free" . And fiscal 2012, we plan to tax of equity investment is price increase from 10% to 20% (strictly now have been reduced tax rate, it is returned to the original 20%). This means that since 2012, is there a possibility that Ekizei of up to about 40,000 yen (200,000 yen less than × 20%) occurs.

Also as was a profit of more than 200,000 yen, because fewer people if the tax rate of income requires only 10%, if the tax rate of the equity investment is back to 20%, it will be obtained regardless of the magnitude of the profit. Especially in originally people need tax return, such as self-employed, if well tax saving to have tax rate is 10% of people, time and effort it might be better to have the "no specific account-withholding" because is almost unchanged does.

Unnecessary, such as private bank!

It occurred to Dosakusa of the financial crisis? Or such of, a private bank that also opened the door for individuals is, you have to actively advertise using the books and WEB site.

However, there is no need for ordinary people to use the private bank.

In Europe is their birthplace, wealthy to financial instruments such as foreign stocks and precious metals other than their own, was the situation that you can not only invest in a private bank. But by globalization and borderless financial market, those that commodity that can not be invested only in a private bank was no longer almost non-existent. Now foreign stocks and precious metals investment, are equipped with environment that can anyone can use the net securities.

First place that the private bank is a business that only a small number of millionaire if originally the opponent. Labor required for per customer is, there is almost no difference in poor even in a large millionaire. Therefore, if you want to operate the same 10 billion yen, than keep one ten million yen from 1,000 customers, better to have collected one by one billion yen from 10 people millionaire, is much more efficient.

And if the real private bank, even without or operating activities in such net and books, and Jokyaku are having from the original, and only network of wealthy spread from their introduction, should be enough business. In other words, the private bank that you have an open until the common people activities, or no newcomer proven in the newborn, or will the large-millionaire can not be collected the funds to the other bastards. In any case, for the common people to such private bank, it can be said that it is Mattakumotte unnecessary presence.

Also as similar services to private bank, there is a thing called that such major banks of Japan are dealing with "wrap accounts (wrap fund)". Originally wrap account but 100 million yen had been said to be the lowest line, has recently also appeared wherever possible deposit from 10 million yen. You can use the lounge of financial institutions, to or with separate personnel, in the sense that taste the atmosphere is really special investment, wrap account if analogy is said to be "private bank Nanchatte".

But this is also the same as the private bank, given the situation of the other party that the service for the original millionaire inevitably stretched a hand to the poor, that it is an unnecessary service for common people will arrive expected.

Of that original wrap account, by taking advantage of the abundant amount of funds of the wealthy, is what professionals who are dispersed invest in individual stocks and individual bonds. However, in actual wrap accounts, while aside the account management fee, on the one hand, you are invested only in mutual funds of its own, eventually I in many cases is a rip-off business that not only Nijudori of commission.

Recently, is, I such because it is desired to increase the earning To Gappori from small rich Petit millionaire's financial institutions have focused on publicity of wrap accounts.

Credibility of rating agencies

The financial industry there is a thing called rating agencies. From Standard & Poor's and Moody's, such rating professional company, also we are rating investment banks and securities firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and bankrupt Lehman Brothers. They are about as the world stocks and bonds, and whether it makes sense to invest in the "rating", has been publicly quantified.

But the authenticity of this rating, there is a great deal problem. No clear definition as to the criteria of the rating, as the rating agencies to favor themselves, it is because you can manipulate intentionally rating.

A typical example of this problem is revealed, it is a sub-prime loan problem that occurred in 2007. Most of the rating agencies, had been given the highest rating of "triple-A" in the sub-prime bonds should be essentially junk bonds (non-investment grade). They rating agencies, since was selling the financial products that sub-prime debt has been incorporated also themselves, by giving a false reassurance to investors by making the them to high rating, I had inosine in sales promotion.

Also As for the individual stocks, they are by lowering of stocks that you want what we buy rating (the rating), giving the anxiety in the market is allowed to decline the stock price, themselves I done that charged at a low price. Of course, if they had a Share that you want to sell, it and picked up the stock price by raising the rating on the reverse, I Urinukeru at a high price.

Besides rating company, from general corporate at the request may also perform the rating of the company. Companies when performing financing by issuing stocks and bonds, if Moraere a high rating from the rating agencies, because financing can be in more favorable conditions. However, in this case, the rating agencies because is not to evaluate the partner companies that have got the money, etc. no reason that harsh assessment is made, tend to be sweet evaluation than the actual situation.

That is to say, they rating agencies, their convenient stocks and bonds, because that can be freely high a lot of evaluation of the company who at Mitsui the money to themselves, is highly questionable reason for its credibility. If the harsh words, the rating company is no different from "shite muscle" to manipulate the stock price by passing a variety of false information. Their aim is not to be disclosed the correct assessment to the world, because only I, such that what we earn.

You can be plausibly announced such as the daily reports of the securities company with such as "The ○○ stocks fell is because ×× Securities lowered the rating" but, by the change of such evaluation to swallow the do not. If you want to reference, at least by comparing the report and evaluation of more than one rating agency, whether it is "shite muscle" Acts of the? Or evaluation of the that to some extent it is credible? You should be comprehensive judgment.

Hedge fund investment is unnecessary because it is riddled with problems!

Speaking from the conclusion, it is absolutely unnecessary to ordinary people is to invest in hedge funds.

First, the hedge fund that ordinary people can invest, only it can be said that there is no fund that does not deserve to invest. Hedge funds originally, is to asset management to undertake a large amount of money from a small number of large-millionaire. Even if to the operation of the same 10 billion yen, and and the keep one by one billion yen from 10 people, and than keep one ten million yen from 1000 people, because the cost of customer support is too difference.

In the fund of operation, do not you let the Ikagani middle cancellation will be a problem. Since the cancellation is to sell the stock if it is necessary to make the cash, because the cost and time-consuming. So originally fund manager who treats the funds together of millionaire as much as possible, I do not want to partner such as retail customers. Of that hedge fund that will correspond to small guests, rather than kind, it is because have not been to the other party from wealthy bastards.

When the former Murakami fund world by storm, but has been rumored that it is not possible to invest and no minimum of 100 million yen, it's the correct strategy for the management side to provide a minimum amount limit.

The hedge fund is not suitable to large principle of investment called "Do not invest in things you do not understand what is". Is the strategy of the hedge fund "market neutral" to hear that such "long short", do you not understand?

World of investor = Warren Buffett, also in the 1990s that had been boiled in IT bubble, the IT-related stocks did not invest at all. But of that "what the do not know what company that's to be" was the reason, for the IT bubble burst after, also by Buffett grades continued higher than the market average, prove that this idea was correct is doing.

The hedge fund is a high cost of the problem than the normal investment trust. Many funds in particular provide a "success fee" in addition to trust fees, as well as achieved if higher yields, so when that is reduced to investors is taken around 20% as a success fee, investors are much profitable that I often do not.

And, although you also can have also been published, such as the average return of hedge funds in the United States, this number may problem that actually appear to be higher than.

Since the results are hedge funds can not be decent operation in succession outflows bad, is located immediately to the trend that fund is dissolved. And if you want to do it on the fund manager who is it established a new fund, who was re-starting is because it is convenient in a state in which reset the negative results table.

Thus the average return of hedge funds, it is calculated only in excellent fund that survived, because bad funds are excluded of the disbanded performance, I become overvalued number than the entity. So even though the average return of hedge funds is high, and its numerical value is the thin credibility. Let alone in the fund that can invest the general public not a millionaire, because I is likely to be bastards fund suffering to collect funds, that it does not deserve to longer investment It is obvious.

The reason for the expected does not strike economists

In television and newspapers, economists (economist) and the future of the stock market and foreign exchange, I will teach you with a reason plausible. However, if people in the economic news of interest on a daily basis, it should be have realized that their expectations are not hit at all. Economists literally, should experts about the economy. Why their expectations are experts, or will not hit until about this?

First, one of the reasons, economists belonging to large organizations, along the flow of the necessity and the world "safe prediction" because only can not. For example, the stock market is in an upward trend of time in top form for that "This is because the bubble closed the hand" is a medium-s tall order. Speaking the expected, such as dampen economic boom, and then you Cry total Scandic from investors, in some cases because also caused danger.

To further add, mass media (especially television) in order to attract the audience, is always a strong tendency to over-report the trend of the world. Therefore in the bull market, the voice of professionals toot is ignored, just the voice of the festival scholars such as inflame the market has been reported, or else you built up a trend that it's of course.

So, is bullish forecast more than necessary when the stock market is upward trend is, (looks like) that pessimistic forecast increases at the time of crash I. However, since the rise and crash it too to go will change any tide, they expected it is a translation that become easily dislodged in the often.

Another reason, rather than being discussed on the basis of economic analysis in the economists, because there are guys that have said that convenient to yourself on TV and newspapers.

For example, economists say the "future $ 1 = yen goes up to 50 yen level!" Such as the extreme argument was based on the desire to "want you to yen has advanced" rather than expects the yen advances remark such is the. Nothing it is, you have a Japan government bonds, not necessarily only in the case of direct motivation like that, have a foreign currency selling in FX.

In an attempt Toriiro to large organizations and authorities, also not a few scholars who recite the convenient and become theory to its opponent. For example guys called "Bank of Japan patronized scholars", you advocated the theory that the yen's course. Then by defending the Bank of Japan policy, been able to continue to have good relations with the Bank of Japan executives, (such as off-the-record information is entered) As a result I benefits as an economist occurs. In this way, remarks that were based on their own interests will be referred to as the "position Talk" and "lantern articles".

This property is the same as such as professional baseball and horse racing commentator expected. Baseball commentator is everyone former professional baseball player, I think you make any statements like praise arguably baseball team, players had their own belongs to. The belittle the players are acquainted is to exacerbate the human relationship, if you are taking your mood of the team can be well "flatter", because there Even potentially become a future coach and director. Well as horse racing commentator, if tries to continue to have a crony with a specific target of data collection (trainer of jockeys and stables), I will not write the inevitable and critical articles to them.

Is not limited to the economist, the human that are speaking in the media, I often fellows that have a position talk on the basis of their own interests. Their is not opinion than truly receive, it is important to listen and read to back situation.

Golden Cross of winning percentage is actually very low

There is a "golden cross" the most well-known technical indicators are in stock investment. The Golden Cross, and that of passing on the long-term moving average line short-term moving average line situation. Usually long-term 25-day moving average, short-term is the moving average five days.

When the Golden Cross occurs, in order to be seen as the stock price began to rise trend, it is said that a sign of rising stock prices. There is no actually less likely to be described as such "Nikkei average has entered the Golden Cross" also to market commentary and analyst reports to be published, such as Yahoo Finance.

In practice, however, the probability of stock price rise after the Golden Cross, there is a shock of data that less than 5 percent. Saito Masaaki's book "winning 80% of the contrarian system trade-surgery", the verification data of the "stock price transition until the Golden Cross ⇒ dead cross" of all issues of 1983-2005 years have been marked. According to it, the performance of all after 81,587 times of the Golden Cross, was unusually low probability of winning percentage 33.9%. The average income was recorded 0.59 percent plus, this only worked a savings of time of super bull market 86 ~ 1989 and 2005, it is time other than was the statistical results that the case be negative often .

In other words, the most famous and technical indicators that are also referred to as "basic" in Japan, actually winning percentage is only about one third, it means that it is almost useless and to improve the timing of buying and selling. The reason for Golden Cross does not work is considered some, but it seems that it is great to be too famous has become a foe. Because, Golden Cross is probably an indication that all of the people that the equity investment is know, should everyone have seen the chart is aware of it. Then, because the occurrence likely stocks will more and more people buying and selling in anticipating, you will become difficult to function as an indicator.

This, and the high probability that put the peak a few days before the shareholders stocks ex-rights date, is exactly the same reason. That the preferential treatment stocks to rise toward the ex-rights date, therefore I've used widely known to the individual investors, multiplied by the movement (since after the ex-rights is surely share price to fall) Urinukeru just before investors This is because it has increased.

Also, the day before the NY Dow is easy to become if skyrocketing Nikkei average of the next day is "more ceiling", the majority of individual investors as well as institutional investors, the probability that the rise also Nikkei if the previous day's NY Dow goes up high that it was aware of, is the reason that forestall bias works.

Conversely, was proposed by Saito and "25-day moving average deviation method", such as "Economy Watchers investment" proposed by Seiji Noda, precisely because many indicators that investors are not strongly aware of, because its effect is sustained quotient. Of that famous too indicators and data, because they are anticipating enough to be known and if known to everyone, I the effect weakens.

Chart analysis is not useful for stock price forecast of

If global classification of equity investments, to determine material the financial analysis of the company with the "fundamentals School", is divided into "Technical School" to the charts and statistical data approach to determine material. And also in the technical analysis, such as the RSI and Bollinger bands, and the idea that emphasizes the probability-statistical numbers, such as the dubious name of the method to be "Elliott Wave" from the law of the golden cross and inverted triangular preciousness and Granville, There is a concept that emphasizes the form of a stock chart.

And speaking from conclusion, chart analysis is almost useless without the stock price expectations, it is not just the occult.

The book chart analysis, we put the result of successful by analyzing the shape of the chart. However, it does not mean that the law is successful in all of the stocks. In the book of chart analysis, to never fail example is resting, it is not informed to be the laws to be successful in the heck what percentage of probability.

On the other hand, even in the same technical analysis, rather than in the form of a chart, in the method of statistical analysis, there is also a thing that there is credible. For example, Masaaki's advocate Saito "25-day moving average deviation method", "winning percentage 78.7%, average income + 7.58%" as a result of the verification for all stocks of up to 1983 - 2005 revealed the numerical value of have. Because it is numerical value that target share price of all issues for more than 20 years, we can say that there is a very credible data.

But "Granville" s of it, "Sakata (v) an act," such as Dano "Elliott Wave", in the technique to analyze the form of charts, data such as this as the actual probability of success is not revealed. It sounds plausible if it is explained from the chart of success example, but it's pointless but it does not have told the heck whether it is how much probability in valid, how much to fail.

More than not shown a clear data and rationale, chart analysis is humans who made it is not only arbitrarily created approach, ie the same as such as fortune-telling and horse racing bulging eyes expected, with said to be mere occult quotient.

By the way, in the books of Mr. Saito, supra, has been made the verification of the "Golden Cross" is an indicator of the most famous chart analysis. According to it, in the period 1983 to 2005, "lost the victory is 27,655 times 53,932 times (winning 33.9%), average income + 0.59%" Golden result of verification of the cross-trading in all stocks seems. It is a golden cross that are sometimes spoken in stock news, etc., but you can see that almost no profit is out from the data.

Day trading is not profitable absolutely!

People do not know that strains are considered to be "equity investment = gambling". The cause is probably a large influence of the epidemic was day trading from around 2005. If you go to the equity investment corner of the bookstore, are lined with still a large amount of day trading Reference.

But if you say from the conclusion, let's stop because day trading is not profitable absolutely!

If long-term equity investment, and that we have always rises Historically it can be said that it is "positive sum game". But day trading = short-term trading in principle to the "zero-sum game", people who lose a person that is win is not just a "speculation" that exist only for the same. While repeating or losing or winning, because the commission is run up by frequent buying and selling, you will have been cut reliably assets only fee amount.

To begin stock market, individual investors with respect to the speed of information is located in the most unfavorable, end. This is also the era only there was no over-the-counter trading, even in the modern Internet has developed, is a universal fact that does not change at all.

For example, when the news that is material to a company has been presented at the net, such as the news is announced original site and securities company, before sending the information to your personal computer, is not already know that information. In other words, is already proprietary trading department of information based on companies and securities companies when you come to know such information, you should have been buying and selling by proactively. Eventually all the information that comes around to individual investors not only to information of "Degarashi", and than had been buying and selling on the basis of it, it is only in the manure of the market.

Also, likely but Michio Mr. President and Matsui Matsui Securities had said in a magazine, in the Treasury of the securities company, information of "plate" that buy and sell orders of investors is marked is seen everything from top to bottom is. In the course individual investors of the tool, plate information only and does not see the current up and down the number of price ticks.

Also because the securities company is also a bookmaker, If you order through the at least their securities company, Who is taking out how much the order of, you can grasp all. Be the biggest noise in day trading "Misedama (false order of such shite muscle. After the price manipulation is possible order is canceled)" also judgment of, to predict because whether Whose orders if Treasury is understood easy it is a translation. The individual investor, or order that it was written in the plate that orders whether true of Misedama, because judgment material is rarely, only would still be used to fertilize the market in the short-term trading.

In this way, on which is inferior in both quality and quantity of information overwhelming, because I mean that participated in the calculation on a profitable not zero-sum game, I can not have that individual investors can win at day trading. Individual investors, and taking advantage of the benefits that can be freely set period of time and investment without restriction, is we should devote itself to long-term investment.

Contrarian bend ya

Do you know the adage of investment called "bend shop to pick!"? Bend ya the world of finance and, I will say that of the people especially spree Remove the expected in stock investment. In other words, it is a maxim that will make money by making the contrarian and short selling of their expectations.

Kitahama flow Ichiro is one famous example is, in between the individual investor to be recognized as "bend ya" many, the recommended stocks buying Kitahama teacher Toka not buy the absolute, shalt be short selling! Is often referred to Toka. Also, such as "Kazuko Hosoki of divination" or "expected of Horiemon" in celebrities, seems to have been called the shop bending between the part of the people around the net.

When certainly try to verification, and their expectations are not out beautifully, has also been confirmed track record of stock that was recommended by industry and companies tumbled. However, it is only a contrarian and short selling of remarks of this people, what really is profit on the stock market?

To begin with price movements of stocks, is fifty-fifty also probability to fall even probability that go up in the short term. Let alone a market of recent years of full commitment lowering Japan strain, the Nikkei average to peak was with 18,000 yen in 2007, in April 2010 now has fallen even before and after and nearly 40% of 11,000 yen.

In other words, in a situation of such bear market, and also to predict the price movements of the stock price of a company, is the person of the probability of negative was much higher. Kitahama flow Ichiro and Kazuko Hosoki not only should the stock price forecast of a lot of people were out.
And in the world, you can speak to because he or she would like to Urinuke to be "more to rise!", Fellows to a "Sell" in order that you want charged at a low price is also a lot. You have been chosen name in the item well as Eisuke and Takeshi Fujimaki Sakakibara to Wikipedia "bend ya", they prominent critic is not a pure market expectations, remarks, including the interests that come involved in their own also likely to have a high I.


In this way, for the sake of their own interests, and you dare to say a position talk that to the remarks of spirit and true reverse. Also the probability of falls that hit, it is to a certain meaning of course that.

Goldman Sachs investment bank and Moody's, such as credit rating agencies, such as, and up to the famous personal blog publishers, in the world in order that their is advantageously traded, guys for the position talk is also very large. They are thought of as a "Pump and dump" and "shite act" is depending on the interpretation, just because a possibility that they will be prosecuted by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law violations would be none ....

So it is easy to be dangerous to ride in their remarks, but to not know the truth of the remark, it is Kangaemono also to simply reverse tension and short selling. Individual investors, such and prominent critic as given the influence the market, and the guys of financial powerhouse such as Goldman Sachs, for there is no chance of winning in the place where the information battle it is clear.

Also to "monkey imitate investment" and because they often hit people, and also to reverse tension and "because the bend ya", it does not get to say and too ill-advised strategy. Do not rely on such expectations of people in the stock investment, you should trade with a firm belief and the grounds on your own.

Shareholder responsibility and is

In the nuclear accident in Fukushima, TEPCO compensation issues have been rumored. So is the word "shareholder responsibility" that often come out. Shareholders off the Mizeni, because some people have an image, such as pay reparations, I will try to explain shareholder responsibility.

Shareholder responsibility and is, or value of share certificates is depleted in the capital reduction, such as value at delisting is I mean that become zero. For example, JAL in 2010 (Japan Airlines) was bankrupt, this time JAL shares will be eventually delisted, the stock was now zero. If it is delisted, of course existing shareholders, you will not be able to recover the investment funds. In this way, in the sense shareholders not be able to recover the investment funds of "shareholder responsibility", does not mean never new burden occurs.

Definition of legal, Ltd. that of "shareholder", does not the president and employees. And all company profits are those of the shareholders, the shareholders also reserves the right to decide the company's management policy. Instead, if the company went bankrupt, is a translation responsible for it.

However, in the Corporation, because the responsibility of shareholders has been a "limited liability will be limited to the amount of investment (capital)", as well as the remaining debt is dissolved the company, does not have a repayment responsibility to shareholders. Only of that shareholder liability is only "worth of share certificates Invested = have become zero", does not bear more burden.

By the way, when the bankruptcy of companies, but is not to dispose of the remaining assets (such as land, buildings and equipment) to the company, has decided seniority at that time. Shareholders, because this seniority is the last, in most cases, all the shareholders do not remain money. By the way, (such as a bank) seniority is top of the the creditors than shareholders, as of the above in the salary of the employee than that, most seniority of is high, such as representing the tax and social insurance premiums country giant If a company is bankrupt, can not afford to not dissolve the company (or a bunch of unemployed, adversely affect a number of suppliers), so you might also be nationalized. The nationalization, it is that the country is to play the company become a shareholder.

And if only "part nationalization" leave existing shareholders present (capital increase, etc.) country is the largest shareholder, there is a case of "full nationalization" of all shares country purchase. Full at the time of nationalization, capital reduction - that is the equity value of 100% of the existing stock becomes zero, will the existing shareholders will not be able to recover any investment funds.

Because it is stronger trend that undesirable in capitalist society that it is state-owned, cases in recent years is full nationalization is rare. During the 2008 financial crisis, but major financial institutions such as AIG and Citibank got into a financial crisis, management restructuring measures that the United States government did remain in the injection of public funds, until the full nationalization did not go.

The difference between the public offering and third-party allocation of new shares

Mainly in the capital increase of the company as a "public offering" There are two types of "third-party allocation of new shares".
Public and the capital increase, by way of a wide range funding through the stock market, general investors also it is possible to buy the newly issued shares. The third-party allocation of new shares, on the other hand, existing shareholders other than the specific third party only from the fact of how to financing, general investors will not be able to buy the shares to be issued to the new.

When listed companies to capital increase, you will be required to provide public notice in advance in both cases. Because, since the number of shares outstanding is increased if the capital increase, in order to lead to the dilution of shareholders' interests, it is because is for existing shareholders to mean that the (as it is) loss. This "one share dilution of earnings" will to be caused not the same as would be public offering that it would a third-party allocation of new shares.

However, the capital investment and business expansion by funding, if increased profits itself of companies, you can also benefit of shareholders increases to more than minute that was dilutive. If you become so, it is an ideal capital increase for investors, it can be said that the thing that should be welcome.

In the case of the REIT (real estate investment trusts), all benefit from such problem of tax will be turning to dividends, retained earnings is not basically. Therefore, in order to REIT company to acquire new properties for earnings growth, either the debt from financial institutions, or it is not only one of either the capital increase. However, in the case of REIT, capital increase funds are used to acquire new properties, because we will increase certainty in sales as more property is, and I would say it's positive capital increase basically. But in the capital increase, there are often also be quite retrospective case or, simply done in order to have trouble financing.

For example, since the financial crisis of 2008, UFJ · Mizuho Sumitomo of 3 and large mega Mitsui, such as Nomura Securities, Daiwa Securities, major financial institutions was unanimously capital increase. But these are not never future profits vision, such as lead to, simply Dattari compensation of that when the financial foundation of the company had weakened its, "Dosakusa covered the capital increase from the speculation of the future of capital adequacy requirements is strengthened it was not only ". Therefore, existing shareholders who will dislike this capital increase proposal, stock prices after the above-mentioned financial institutions all capital increase announcement has caused a big crash.

It would be public offering when would be a third-party allocation of new shares, because the value of existing shareholders at the moment will be dilutive, is in many cases the stock price falls in recent years. But then, if the company can grow even larger by funding and many investors judgment, sometimes stock prices to rise even after the capital increase announcement. In addition, even in the case of retrospective of capital increase does not lead to revenue growth, if that it is being woven into stock prices have been predicted in advance that (certain period of time much stock prices are going down) is not lowered stock price after the capital increase announcement , also located in the rare case that rebound to reverse in the material Detsukushi.

Relationship of credit balances and stock prices

Credit balance and is, "credit buying the rest" that the minute you are buying a stock on margin, is called "Shin'youurizanri" to have (short selling) worth of selling shares in credit. Also is called a numerical credit magnification of "credit buying remaining ÷ sell the rest".

Normally credit magnification is 1 or more times, that is, to buy the rest of it is many. This credit buying the rest, will have a significant impact on the future of the stock price.

Credit magnification is high (= buying very many remaining), work is strong selling pressure in the future stock price. Because, in a manner that many credit called "credit institutions", because it is necessary to settle within six months. In other words, the current credit buying remaining minutes, it means that it is put up for sale within six months, it will be an element of the decline in stock prices.

Point you want to emphasis, is the change in credit magnification. For example, if the credit magnification in the last few months has been reduced, credit buying remaining has decreased, or because is that short selling has increased, believed that the future of the stock price decline risk was Usuma~tsu, we can say that the chance of purchase.

But in fact, even as credit magnification has improved, it is not simply limited to the work on the plus to stock prices. The reason is that the credit transaction because do not know the exact pressure to If you do not see until the breakdown There are two ways of "institutional credit" and "General Credit (indefinitely credit)" stock price.

Generally are credit transactions are available in the "institutional credit", which order to perform the balance of the shares through the stock exchange, has deadline is provided that up to a maximum of 6 months. That is what you have to talk above, institutional credit is the premise.

On the other hand there is also a system called "general credit (indefinitely credit)", this is a credit transaction, which is operated by the rule that each securities company decided individually and not through the stock exchange. General credit does not mean the settlement period has clearly decided, seems securities company that has established indefinitely often.

In other words, even though an increasing number of credit balance, depending on whether it is institutional credit or general credit, impact on the stock price will come at all different. If, for example, "credit buying remaining" all institutional credit, because the settlement will come within six months, but will be in the future of selling pressure, because it does not have to be the settlement date if if all general credit, and be said to be simple to selling pressure I do not. In the famous brand such as the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, I think that it is good to not have to worry too much because the institutional credit for the majority is occupied, but it is better that it was confirmed prima facie case of low market capitalization is small and liquidity stocks.

The problem with gold ETF

Also in Japan (Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Osaka Securities Exchange) now ETF is a number listed from 2007. That although many of these are unpopular a volume also Mamanaranai state, it is a gold ETF that one of the few exceptions is to invest in "gold (Gold)".

Gold and stock markets and the US dollar is characterized by the fact that prone to price movements of inverse correlation. Especially since the sub-prime crisis, with speculation that the value of the dollar from the United States of deficit expansion risk is going to decline, gold price is a haven from the dollar is on the rise, update the highest value ever in 2009 autumn Island was.

So far the gold investment could not be performed only wealthy, it is possible that gold ETF is listed, even ordinary people can now be investment from small (about 10,000 yen), making it the popular.

Gold ETF are two types have been listed, one is SPDR Gold Shares of the Tokyo Stock Exchange [Stock code: 1326], the other one is OSE gold price-linked exchange-traded funds [Securities code: 1328] is. Was listed in the person ahead of 1328 of the Osaka Securities Exchange, but trading volume also I overwhelmingly people of 1328 there were many, both the volume (amount basis) in recently become roughly the same as before and after 300 million yen the 1st year.

However, in this gold ETF, lurking big risk there is. There is a problem in those of 1328 of OSE listed, this ETF is the stuff of a format called that do not possess the cash assets "linked notes (aka · ETN)".

Towards the TSE of 1326 so ETF has issued a gold-kind as collateral, even if the bankruptcy is if the issuer is a mechanism that investment funds can come back because there is a "gold" of the underlying asset. However, since 1328 the case of the OSE is a link-bonds, linked notes of the issuer (seems Norwegian financial institutions) is not only just to have a contract to guarantee the price. If if the company of this Norway is bankrupt, investment funds is the high may not come back at all.

Actually this link bonds · ETN, such as the Shanghai stock ETF [1309] and Brazil stock ETF [1325] other than 1328 Fri, true the majority of foreign stocks and commodity-related ETF that have been published since 2007. This means that these ETF will be the thing you are having all the same problems. I think the thing is not to collapse so easily, but you will need to understand that lurking is such potential risks when investing.

With regard to investment in at least gold ETF, rather than a problem 1328, you should invest in 1326 · SPDR Gold Shares that there is support for the gold of the actual products.

Do not invest unions in strong companies!

The company is to grow, where work workers need to maintain high productivity. From the perspective of shareholders, workers the same as such machine, it is not just a gear that moves the company.

Interests of shareholders and workers at odds, of that relationship of the Win-Win will not be present. Wages of workers, it is a cost for companies, the higher the workers' rights, because the profit of the company is to become thinner.

Bankrupt JAL (Japan Airlines) to the present labor union eight things, employees who had achieved high treatment, such as surprised to see from the general public. If pilots can fire a strike, the airline is helpless. Instead of human beings even if employees strike of super you can refill immediately, but can not be such that the pilot of the aircraft to come easily brought instead. Thus tyranny of the labor union side is rampant, salaries of employees fool of high productivity in undiminished decline, JAL I was bankrupt.

Similarly, the United States of GM (General Motors) also, still the power of trade unions was very famous for strong thing. Salaries and retirement benefits of GM employees is much higher than the other manufacturers, the cost burden was bankrupt be harmful. In this way, the stronger interests of workers, it is the cost of the company increases, exacerbate the management.

Such as Toyota and Canon Conversely, it is possible to use the extraneous dispatched workers and labor unions in large quantities, it compresses the labor costs to to the limit, has grown the world to dominate huge manufacturer. After the financial crisis dispatch cutting has been a problem, but for the company to continue to raise the high income, companies that can handle the workers as disposable slaves I favorable.

If you write such a thing but is "what inhumane it's a guy!" And been accused likely, as first wrote, workers and shareholders interests will conflict. By increasing the workers' rights, as long as you do not even picked up the minute price, and ends only to revenue of the company is compressed.

The called investors, and you are considered to be standing in the position of workers, not be able to increase the assets. When would be inhumane, and should I examine the companies thoroughly pursue profitability. World, does not turn on a per clean. Throw away the emotion and thought and beliefs, the more people that can be judged to dry, I can be successful as an investor.

REIT of rising interest rates risk

REIT (Real Estate ETF) is, from the fact that you can invest in real estate, such as easy to prime office buildings from small, is a very good financial instruments. In Abenomics rate of 2013, stock prices of the REIT has also been rising, individual investors who have won a big profit would also be many.

Also as leverage destination of NISA account that began in 2014, dividends lot of (dividend) REIT has been attracting attention. Towards the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, there is also predicted that land prices in Tokyo enters the bubble again, we can seriously consider age to invest in REIT.

However, considering the course of the future of the Japanese economy, there is one big risk you should be careful in investing in REIT. It is a management worsening of REIT due to the rise of interest rates.

REIT from that it is in law not to apply corporate tax to be turned more than 90% of the profits in dividends, is not nearly be retained profits. For this reason, when the REIT to acquire a new property will need to be either "capital increase" or "borrowing from the bank". And many of the listing to REIT is, we are a lot of borrowing from the bank. Therefore REIT, when interest rates rise the burden of debt increases, has become a mechanism for risk management tilts increases.

Is to measure the interest rate risk of the REIT are valid indication that "LTV". LTV is the abbreviation of (Loan to Value), an index that represents the ratio of debt to the real estate value, is a risk that this value is worse is management at the time of higher interest rates rise high. J-REIT overall average of LTV has remained at 40 percent, and I would say that it is careful when it exceeds 60%.

Is the source of Abenomics, by the Bank of Japan Kuroda "2% inflation target policy", is likely to continue over the medium to long term market interest rates will rise in Japan. First place of zero interest rate policy, in unprecedented policy in the world of financial markets (after the Lehman shock, but the United States and Europe has followed suit), on the mechanism of capitalism, more than 2% of inflation if the original is the obvious level .

The first place in order to Japan is not financial collapse, it is necessary to more than 4% of the inflation target, is the current Bank of Japan also considerably lower number target value of 2%. Thus the future, interest rates of Japan is extremely likely to continue to rise, interest burden of the REIT will continue to increase. Although the economy is different if we greatly increased the rent is to bubble, and in spite of the deceleration economy by consumption tax hike of 2014, further tax increases since '15 by the Ministry of Finance of interest also planned it is we, the rise in rents is not much can be expected. Let alone Abenomics market is too strong expectations majors, stock prices of the REIT has excessive rise to positions that already can be called "bubble". It is evidence, the average distribution yield of the 2014 current J-REIT is and about 3%, has remained historically low levels. Currently, dividends of only commensurate with the interest rate rise risk investment to the manifestation of the REIT is obtained and not situation.

Is not limited to the REIT, most Japanese have accustomed to the "deflation", "zero interest rate", it is a situation that has forgotten the risk of inflation and rising interest rates. I do not intend that Tomero to invest in REIT, but future interest rates in Japan continue to surely rise, J-REIT that low interest rates have been run in the premise, there is a risk that come out also where to bankruptcy.

REIT will or is said to be such as middle risk, middle return, but the reality is not so sweet, came out also REIT that was bankrupt as New City Residence at the time of the Lehman shock. Economy will increase the risk also increased interest rates and overheated, the financial crisis will increase is still bankruptcy risk also happening. Investors REIT should be aware of and he is stock and risk of the same level.

Stock liquidity risk of

Equity investments have everyone know that there is a fall risk, but it does not have little is known about the liquidity risk. This is a little low ... Plainly speaking volume liquidity, says that the state buying and selling is not active.

Stock trading, you met for the first time to have the buyer and seller. And stock prices I is determined by the so-called "auction method". In other words, the stock price if the lot you are than those who want to sell a person that wants to buy the stock rises, stock prices in the case of those who want to sell on the contrary, many will fall.

Nevertheless, the low liquidity ... clogging trading volume of less stocks, people who want to sell some people want to buy the stock is also a state that does not have a very small number. If you are buying and selling this kind of brand, it is at the time of purchase is a relatively expensive price, also sold at the time prone to state that not only sell at a cheaper price. This way, or call the state but low liquidity are forced to deal with adverse price for the "premium is on", you or call the "spread" that the price of divergence.

There is no such as the need to really care TSE part of the brand, such as and emerging markets Mothers, Hercules, stocks listed on the local, such as the Nagoya Stock Exchange, Fukuoka Stock, because trading volume of the day is very low, liquidity risk will say it's high market.

In recent years, ETF that a series is listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and Osaka Securities Exchange (exchange traded funds) also, liquidity has been one after another is extremely low stocks. Etc. In particular, industry-specific ETF and commodity ETF, trading volume of the day there are some even tragic ETF of zero. ETF of this hand, but originally I products that can be invested with ease even in difficult grain prices and metal market it is to invest, too volume is too small, always order to be forced to buy or sell at premium rode price to, attractiveness as an investment has gone drastically reduced. Actually of that liquidity risk is not a story unique to strain. For example, real estate buying and selling is not only the price unit say that expensive, not find a buyer when you want to sell emergency, you might not forced to sell at bargain price. Theory that it is advantageous to rent than home ownership, because home ownership is not always possible to immediately sell, it is one of the reasons is to say because not accurate as an asset.

Also at this site, investment in government bonds for individuals does not recommend absolutely. This is also referred to as government bonds for individuals will not be redeemed 1-2 years after purchase, because they had a very poor "liquidity risk". To is not much different from the current interest in bank deposits, at any time since pulled out immediately as cash.

In this way, it is not limited to equity investment, on every asset management and financial instruments of choice, as well as cost and dividends, interest, "liquidity risk" and that at any time or premium can be immediately cashed without ride also should be taken into account in consideration.

Risk of stock lending

The stock lending, it is possible to take the form that lends his holdings in securities companies, and is a service that can receive interest. SBI Securities, kabu.com Securities, such as Monex is, we are a stock lending services. (By the way securities company is a strain that was borrowed, has been lending to such people who want to short sale)

In long-term investment is the premise of the brand, the time being, such as if there is no intention to sell, it is wasteful story only holds as it is. If you put out to stock lending, and interest income is obtained of the year around 0.5% (securities company or brand, varies depending on the interest rate situation). In stock lending services of net securities, "dividend" that should no longer get the original by the name change also, most cases separately obtained a dividend payment from the securities company.

Also if there is a shareholder benefits, you will not get it normally, but it seems in the above net securities some systems return the preferential right to stop the stock lending automatically to preferential rights day just before. In other words, even in a state that made the stock lending in the current net securities, dividends and shareholder benefits to get as it is, and that the interest income of the stock lending worth can also be obtained, services of overwhelming have been expanded.
Or this way Although it is stock lending system that is visible us perfect thing good, Will not something problem? The most attention should that be is, by performing a stock lending, if bankruptcy is any chance securities company, is that you also are at risk to suffer damage. On shares that were usually purchased have a name to the original purchaser, because the securities company have an obligation to be managed separately from the company's assets, even if securities company of what is in your assets even if the bankruptcy impact There is not. But in stock lending, because the name of stocks has shifted to securities companies, since is regarded as an asset of the securities company, if bankruptcy and was sold as a supplement to the creditor, in your hand you do not come back also, even for one yen There is even fear. This means that stock lending services, whether there is no risk that securities company to your use collapses, there is a need to assess fully.

Another problem is, even if I get from the dividend equivalent amount of securities company, it is to be treated not defined on the "dividend". Dividend is declared separate taxation as "dividend income", but will be subject to comprehensive taxation when it comes to receipts from the securities company as "miscellaneous income". Many people of income, will be the loss more and more tax when it comes to miscellaneous income treatment. The dividend income, you can sell loss and offset of profits and losses, such as stocks and mutual funds (come back taxes) is not possible offset of profits and losses in miscellaneous income.

..... On the risk of the above two points, and you should consider whether or not to use the stock lending services. By the way, another one point, by the name of the stock is transferred to the securities company, but there is also a disadvantage of voting rights is lost in the general meeting of shareholders, because private investment useless nearly such as voting rights for the house, would not be much of a problem is this point .

Problems of power stock investment

Between the individual investor, it is an investment of but flashy is not the still popular is the "power line". On the variation of performance is less, is the varying elements easy to read. For example, the manufacturing cost is increased if crude oil prices, power consumption in the cooling demand reduction if cool summer (= sales) is decreasing, it is easy to predict even in amateur and so on.

And the biggest feature If nothing else is, on dividend yield is increasing, decreasing dividends risk is very low. Such as Tokyo Electric Power and Kansai Electric Power, dividend yield is always about 2-3% because you have to keep, is higher deals sense than such as the current bank. Risk is to be avoided as much as possible, but, but ... from such thinking yields too low of bank deposits and government bonds for individuals, not a few people that hold the power shares in the long term.

But the author does not recommend so much that you possess the power lines in the long-term. The power strain because suffer from two major problems.

The first problem is the tapering of future electricity demand. As you know in Japan is progressing declining birthrate and aging population, it is hard economic conditions that thought and future power demand increases. Additionally recent energy conservation and Ekobumu also, is the reduction factor of the electricity consumption.

It is ironic, but as advances, the world of energy saving is, sales of power companies is reduced, performance is to worsen. This means that the performance of the power company, it is the relationship of "conflict of interest" with the world of power-saving behavior, such as energy saving and eco, I sad industries.

And is that another problem is, there are rules that can not be achieved above a certain level of profit margin. Electricity rates are bound by law that the power business method, it is a mechanism that is determined put the interests of a certain percentage in manufacturing cost (price of crude oil and coal, such as the cost of manufacturing windmills and dams). The reason for this, in addition to the fact of that electricity is the lifeline that are essential to people's lives, as that Kansai Electric Power Co. in Tokyo Electric Power and Kansai area if the Kanto region, because each company is able to monopolize the power demand of the region, without permission it is because cause a big trouble in people's lives if the price increases to.

But it also means that you can not be in the price system, such as to keep the arbitrarily high profit margin, it is not only sales ... clogging power consumption increase is to increase the profit. However, as mentioned above, for the stronger decrease pressure power demand by declining birthrate and energy saving, it is extremely difficult situation to profit.

Certainly extreme decline → become risk decreasing dividends are located in small industries but, as the subject of long-term investment for the future, because there is growth potential little, you can determine that it is low very attractive industries. In easy idea because dividend yield is high, is not a good idea to invest in power lines.

Risk of high-dividend stock investment

In the world of stock investing, high dividend yield stocks, tends to yield is higher than any other brand, have been confirmed worldwide.

The most famous, of the New York Dow 30 stocks, it is the "Dow of the dog" strategy of holding the 10 stocks in the annual dividend in descending order. The portfolio consisting of dogs of this Dow, than normal NY Dow average, and he has data that annual yield is more than about 2-3%.

Similarly in Japan, portfolio that were made to collect the dog similarly high dividend companies of the Dow using the 30 species TOPIX core, there is data that fit the results that exceed the TOPIX itself (from diamond ZAI).

Than May 14, 2010 in Japan, ETF (TSE Dividend Focus 100: stock code 1689) to distribute only invest in high-dividend stock of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is expected to launch begins. It seems that it was made aware of is the US "Dow Jones High Dividend Index (DVY)", can be expected higher yields than possess normal TOPIX · ETF (such as 1306) with a high dividend effect That's right.

However I would like to note, just to buy in a simple dividend yield is high individual stocks, you should be aware that it is fraught with another risk.

First, dividend is a problem that greatly varies every year. Especially in emerging market stocks such as JASDAQ and Mothers, sometimes but dividend yield also appears stocks climb to more than 10%, these stocks is almost definitely the next fiscal and decreasing dividends, it will pay no dividend tumble if the poor.


The dividend yield is high, not because the performance is good, we have stock prices decline significantly for performance is having not as or any problems poor, not only in relatively dividend yield is higher case it is often. If generally exceed 5% decreasing dividends risk is high, almost certainly next fiscal If such exceeding 10% would be decreasing dividends.

The stock price data of "Yahoo Finance" that many people are available, it is important to note that the very slow update of corporate information, such as dividends. To examine the dividend yield, but should match against even the data of the securities company rather than Yahoo Finance, the best bet is that you can pick up from the IR information in the HP of the relevant companies. Because sometimes that is also stated policy of in IR "dividend payout ratio", and, combined light of the criteria, you should stick is expected whether there what extent is decreasing dividends risk of the next fiscal year.

If another add, Japanese companies compared to US companies, the first place on dividend yield is low, easy tendency to decreasing dividends is strong. Such as P & G and McDonald's in the United States, no less companies that continue to dividend increases over the decades, but such companies do not first find him in Japan.

In particular, since emerging market stocks such as JASDAQ Mothersbaugh is weak performance fluctuation is intense management foundation, if you take a high-dividend strategy in Japan strain, was selected more or less limited to the large stock of low TSE part of decreasing dividends risk it is a good idea.

The reason for performing the announcement on the same day and other companies

In listed companies the majority of the end of March closing of Japan, there is a duty to make the earnings announcement in mid-May, but many companies have made a presentation on the same day. For example, in fiscal 2010, has been to about 3% of the company May 14 announcement of the TSE of the end of March settlement companies.

TSE has requested to be "me more dispersed", but does not have the ears to hear the side of the companies, companies that make the earnings announcement to concentrate date has been increasing year by year. Intensive day that was about 200 companies in fiscal 2006, fiscal 2010, I was increased to 508 companies. This trend is the same in the Osaka Securities Exchange, announced company of intensive day of fiscal 2010, seems unprecedented.

Why would carry out the earnings announcement on the same day as the other companies? The reason is, it will be due to the fact that the lower the degree of attention from the media and shareholders.

In response to the earnings announcement "sales decreased cause" but of the "should be cost-cutting?" Incurred in the defense been pursued as it is, it is extremely troublesome for companies. But it is possible to match the other large companies and financial results announcement date, you will be able to deceive the media of the eye, even a little. Cause intensive date occurs, is also a manifestation of conservative and backward idea of such companies.

It is also, why similar financial results of most companies is the end of March tighten. Individual employer has stipulated rules and submission (tax return) at the end of March of the end of December tightening, but corporation is free to attempt to what month tightening.

Still reason that more than 80% of Japanese corporations is at the end of March financial results, it is possible to carry out a tax return together at the same time, it is said that because they expect that the tax office check is sweet. Because you are limited tax office labor of, because relatively but in time that vacant hand are expected to be checked carefully if I submit a settlement, the end of March tightening of companies too much to huge, in-house it is because they expect that the tax office of the eye is not Ikitodoka.

Also the shareholders' meeting is to focus on the same day, it is the same reason. In particular, since until '90 stand late had Nosaba~tsu is "racketeers", there was a aim of trying to avoid the onslaught of racketeers by to other companies the same day.

In recent years, although racketeers of business-as-usual seems almost destroyed, "activist shareholder (Activities Fund)" instead because now pose a request to the company at the shareholders' meeting, eventually shareholders meeting specific day tendency to focus on is not much changed.

The reason for stock prices to rise even in bad news

Share price rise to be announced "good news", if you crash as "bad news" is published in reverse, but it generally has been captured. But such quarter earnings announcement is made in deficit, despite being announced bad news for companies, stock prices might rise to reverse. Why there is no relevance quality of the stock price and the closing?

Of that stock prices in the long term will continue to up and down in conjunction with the performance of the company, but in the short term it will be left and right by "supply and demand relationship". And supply and demand of stock, is the point that varies depending on the speculation of market participants. Specifically, by the gap between the expected average and the reality of the market participants, stock prices will fluctuate.

For example, if a company balance sheet is in large deficit, I and many market participants are expected. But in actual earnings announcement, when deficit of the company was small much than expected, it's said to be in "bad news" but "good material". Since the deficit closing of I, but the absolute evaluation basis is no difference in negative material, it will be positive material as a relative evaluation as seen from market expectations.

In other words, news about a company is, it can not be determined by either good news or bad news only itself, whether it is a pre-woven market is how much good material, bad news is it is important. Stock prices, expected and prior market participants, I change by the relative difference between the actual announcement.

Do market participants is what expected, analysts expected the average value (aka: market consensus) will be applicable to it. Major securities companies and, at the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley from investment banks, issue the expectation that what happens is earnings to earnings announcement just before the company. Deviation of the average value of their analysts and the financial results announcement, you have been involved heavily on the top and bottom of the stock price.
Analysts expected (market consensus), such as Yahoo Finance and MSN Money, has been published in each issue page of major stock information site. There is a link called "financial results and performance expected" at the bottom of the individual stocks page if Yahoo! Finance, in MSN Money on the bottom of the left menu of individual stocks page there is orchid called "evaluation and prediction", here in sales and one stock profits I find out the average value of the analysts expected such.

By the way, although there is also such as sites that give the average of forecasts of individual investors by questionnaire, or many people to answer a lie, because the first place move funds amount is less than the institutional investors, they do not have any relevance to the stock price . Importantly only, is the expected average of institutional investors.

In addition, such as PER and PBR is high growth stocks (growth stocks) is the first place that it assumes that you continue the good performance and positive earnings market is watching. So where was announced a bit of positive earnings, they are already more likely is a foldout already in stock. Such as Nintendo is a classic example, but the performance stock price plunged even better, share price at worst is performance even a little as this may result in stop depreciation.

Low PER and PBR "value stocks" on the contrary, the first place because the market is companies that do not expect a good performance, closing stock price is to not fall so much in a little bad position, at once stop high and good news even a little comes out I will be or become barrage.

The reason for rise in stock prices prior to the economy

"Actual anticipation than the economy" or to one of the law of stock price fluctuation "stock price is a leading indicator of economic" There is a saying such. Original of that stock, because it is what it is proportional to the profitability of the company, when the booming economy steadily, up, I to during the recession reverse I think that as sluggish.

In practice, however, stock prices the chances are very good that you will rise or fall in little earlier than economic trends. The financial crisis of late 2008 is still fresh in our minds, but the economy is full fiscal 2009 is at the bottom of the state, Japan The United States and the unemployment rate is worse, GDP growth rate has recorded a minus. However, say stock prices and, the Nikkei average in March 2009 turned to an upward trend in the bottom of became a 7000 yen cracking verge, in August we have recovered the milestone of 10,000 yen. Including the NY Dow average of the United States in the same way, most of the country stock markets of the world, have turned to the upward trend in without waiting for the signs of economic recovery.

This trend, the Great Depression and the 1970s oil shock of 1929, such as the IT bubble burst around 2000, has always happened in the recession. In Why is the stock prior to the economy? It will include two reasons can be broadly divided into.

The first reason is that the economic downturn is because produce "more than money" state. The recession, money is scare off from the stock market, will occur funds flight to safe assets, such as the cash-speed data deposits and government bonds. But the downturn, because the government is responsible for monetary easing (rate cuts), yield of deposit interest rates and government bonds will be very low.

Since human beings is greedy, because you do not increase the money in such a low interest rate, it is no longer bear to be long-running. But the real estate market, (since when the economy is not well real estate is not sold) and then you to rise later than the real economy, such as commodity market gold and crude oil, there is no income gains, such as stocks and real estate and government bonds. In other words, since any such financial instruments to recession expected yield is low, I state that investors hungry for profits is formed.

Erase legally eventually, fearfully To share money started gathering in the market, eventually the stock price hit rise at once to concentrate money and begin to be identified as "or accumulate to impair this opportunity!" To the bottom, economic recovery (= I previously rally is formed than rise) of the government of rate hikes and government bonds and real estate. In this way, investors are referred to as more than money the state can not move decent to some money, this thing is contributing cause of the rise of the stock market before the economic recovery. The world of finance has always repeat that "money over ⇒ bubble formation ⇒ collapse ⇒ more than money".

And another reason is the human psychological factors. Of that stock investments, but it is a make a profit by selling high and buying cheap, is why you want to buy a stock at a low price even a little. When the economy is in earnest to recover stock prices will rise, but rather than buy it from waiting for it, better to buy recession is followed by a state of an equity downturn, is more mean big profits can be expected.

For this reason, always works is bias to budge earlier than others in the stock market. A typical example is the ex-rights of the scene of many shareholders at the end of March. But it should it originally if ex-rights date most stock prices high, is to give a peak at 2-3 days before the majority of preferential stocks vesting date, after ex-rights in anticipation that the stock price will fall, it is advantageous even a little psychological bias that want to sell is the cause.

Garbage stock investment

The garbage stock investment, dare in a way to invest only in stocks that stock prices are extremely sluggish, American investors = John Templeton is now famous for the practice.

One of the winning strategy of the equity investment has a concept of "contrarian". Stocks which had been stagnant in the last, in subsequent periods tend to record a higher performance than the market average, is also referred to as the return reversal. Say also the ultimate system of the contrarian investment, it is garbage stock investment.

Templeton young "low strains have been abandoned from the market, if performance is restored at once attention would gather as Cinderella" thought and, if the stock price has been stagnant extremely that less than 1 torr to exit to the outrage that all buy in (a total of 104 stocks). Investment in this garbage stock that was also amazed from the securities company, was now able to get to the benefit of also about 4 times when we have sold an all strains after 4 years.

Companies that stock prices are sluggish, so that it have a big problem for most, ordinary investors will hesitate to buy. Because most of the investors to shy away from, stock prices will slump to levels significantly below the original value companies.

However, if you can solve the problem companies, stock prices will rise up at once appropriate level. Rise in the share price of the company that became a decent state from bad state, than in the case of excellent companies originally further extend the performance, you can record a much higher yields.

Or have first place oligopolistic market of that excellent companies, because the rationalization of management is progressing, raise a more excellent performance is a daunting task. However, the bad company is restored to decent management, (and only do the things that are made by other companies) does not have too difficult. The first place, then you strive to raise the always sales of that company, because you have a particularly bad companies as sense of crisis, it is a translation rise bias is greater than the outstanding companies.

Yield of low PER stocks and low PBR stocks in today is, in the long term will not appear also statistical results that exceed the market average (so-called value investing). PER and PBR are low value stocks also, in terms of brand is not low evaluation only be obtained from the market is re-evaluated as Cinderella, this is the same principle as the return of garbage stock investment is higher.

By the way, John Templeton, in the wake of the success of this garbage stock investment, has climbed to one of the leading fund managers in the United States. However, subsequent Templeton shifts the stance to growth (growth stocks) investment such as to invest in Japanese stocks, does not mean continued to earn in garbage stock investment

Economy Watchers Investment Law

The swing trade of equity investment, as well as how to use charts and technical indicators, there is also a way to buy and sell according to the specific economic indicators. In one of them, there is a method of investing that use the changes in the index of "Economy Watchers Survey (street corner economy)," the Cabinet Office announced.

This "Economy Watchers Investment Law" is what Seiji Noda of economists was published in books. Economy Watchers survey to be announced at around 14 of the monthly sixth business day, the reliability of as leading indicator of the economy is the highest, seems to index that is suitable to read the bottom and ceiling of the stock price. If improvement index of "status quo decision DI" to be presented at the Economy Watchers survey is more than 1.5 points in the sign of "buy", to determine if worsening reverse to more than 1.5 points a sign of "sell".

Accordingly, if buying and selling Nikkei average ETF, and has achieved a yield of at the data of 10 years from 2000, when the survey began, a total of 126% (annual average 8.5%). This 10 years, and since has become a minus if they continue to have the average Nikkei, you may ask whether this method is superior to how.

Of and clarity trade rules, it has published all verification data, and in that is accompanied by the results of 25-day moving average investment method (aka Saito type swing trade) "Economy Watchers Investment Law" of Toko is it matchless people you'll say.

Economy Watchers survey, such as department store clerks and taxi drivers and Hello Work staff, those that actually do the survey to people who work in the city, each person is not even anything in the economy of experts. Collection of opinion of the general social people is, than such as economists expected, it is that it's accurate to much in economic decision (≒ stock market of the future). It is an investment method like going in the ground "surprisingly correct (James Surowiecki Author) is everyone's opinion" famous.
This method on the data, the person who went in the Nikkei average ETF than TOPIXETF, seems to record a higher yield. Also in the Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index, have been obtained almost the same effect.

The data since 2003 that it is possible to have the Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index, is calculated to yield the annual average 8.7% is obtained. And this is the numerical value of only REIT Index, because the REIT there are dividends, actual performance is more calculated to exceed this. If buying and selling to law as of Economy Watchers investment, it became so that it has a position in exactly half of the 42 weeks of the seven-year (84 weeks), if the dividends of REIT is the average of 5% in the simple calculation 2.5% I'll be adding, annualized yield is calculated that jumps to 11 percent.

Besides, if Karamere a "short sale" not only buy, seems further performance increases. Also this method, it is because it is what you want to predict the market, it is likely to be applied to be or measure the timing of the purchase and sale also in individual stocks.

And averaging buying

And averaging buying, and increased buying in aspects of stock price will fall to lower the average purchase price, it is a method of investing that easy profits.

As an illustration of the averaging buying, for example I will Company A strains of stock price ¥ 1,000 and had 100 shares. Its A Shakabu is Suppose the drops to 800 yen To loose. When this 200 yen worth (25%) remains not rise, it does not return until the break-even point (Puramai zero).

However Referring now newly increased buying the A Shakabu 100 shares, you will calculate you have 200 shares at 900 yen total in "1000 × 100 + 800 + 100". Then A Shakabu will Puramai zero if the rise to 100 yen (12.5%).

Thus averaging buying is, in order to return the stocks that have temporarily fallen into negative to positive territory, it can be said that a very effective way. But there are also drawbacks to averaging buying. To the additional investment in one stock, it will be out biased to the portfolio, it is also a problem.

In the above example, but initially was investment of 100 shares = 100,000 yen to A Shakabu, in averaging buying it has increased to 200 shares, you will calculate you have to invest a total of ¥ 180,000. Although prospectus as Company A shares should I Kurere to rise, if more drops until if 600 yen, and that lived in the 40,000 yen of debt if initially, it faced a debt of ¥ 60,000 in averaging buying wind up I fall into. If by any chance A company once you bankrupt, loss of ¥ 100,000 is I will be to expand to 180,000 yen.

That is averaging buying of problems, in order to become concentrated assets in one of the brand, is located in that risk increases. Therefore averaging buying, rather than the investment of individual stocks, mutual funds or ETF such as, is safer to be carried out in products that reduces the risk to diversified investment to advance a number of stocks.

By the way, for example, the index investment and defined contribution pension, I called every month dollar cost averaging method investment to a certain amount of money funding. Dollar cost averaging in the decline phase of the stock price, it means that you buy in a lot of the number of units at a low price, it will result in the same effect as averaging buying.

Contrarian investment and return reversal

Shares in the investment, buy to chase the stocks that have risen and "forward-clad", buy in stocks in drops called "contrarian", there are two completely different stance. Stock novice is carelessly tend to chase the stocks that have a momentum rise, but in fact is the opposite Hari faction many successful person is in stock investment.

It is also said that God of investment, Warren Buffett also became a multimillionaire ranking the world, surpassing Bill Gates in 2008, is a typical contrarian side of the investors. Buffett is the collapse of the market Ikiri until the "pardoned products from the point", you prefer to buy in large quantities when stock price is low.

In addition, it made a fortune stock at the verge of bankruptcy is distributed invest in company is a state of dirt cheap, John Templeton, which climbed to historic fund manager after also, would be a typical example of contrarian investment.

Besides this, Buffett mentor is a Benjamin Graham and high-tech stock investment guru is a Philip Fisher, emerging investment of the original and also referred to are such as Jim Rogers, I was a huge success in the investment world many of the people is the contrarian type of investors that stock prices are concentrated investment in undervalued time.


In fact have been made various deep research about the contrarian investment, a phenomenon called "return reversal" has been found to be seen all over the world.

The return reversal, strains that had been sluggish than the market average at one time is, is that in subsequent periods become stock price that is above the market average in reverse. During the course, there is also a case that stock becomes worthless in bankruptcy a poor performance, but because it is statistics of including them bad news, it can be said that it is data that pretty credible. John Templeton of the technique that was also referred to as "garbage stock investment" also, I can say that strategy of return reversal aim.

This phenomenon, stock considering since it varies based on the gap between the investors of the expected value will likely attached explanation. Since the already considerable expectations for companies is seen as strong performance is factored into the stock price, or not rising stock prices even if the upward revision is the announcement of results, there is no less the case that drops rather.

On the other hand, companies that have continued if sluggish without even trying, because already beaten sell a considerable share price, if the recovery performance, even a little, is often that stock prices will rise at once. Apparently as human psychology, than the good things become better, more of that bad thing has become somewhat better is, it seems easy to obtain a high evaluation. It does not honor student that always take the 80 points is praised even take the 85 points, but it is the same as always the dunce of 20-30 points is seen as became dramatically better if you take the 50 points.

Behavioral finance theory

The behavioral finance theory, stock market is inefficient, stock prices because Irimidareru are various speculations are left and right to the emotions of market participants, I have explained that it would happen deviant soar and crash a reasonable price. Behavioral finance theory, will be to deny the efficient market hypothesis is the basis of index investment from sperm.

Certainly index fund, although general statistical data that record the excellent yield than active fund is, it is not a theory never to guarantee the absolute superiority. In fact in the United States, than index funds linked to the S & P500 index, and value stocks ETF to invest in low PBR brand, is more of the ETF to invest in high-dividend stocks, have been found to record a higher yield.

The cause of this, has to do with the drawback that index fund faced. Index fund holds on to take a similar position and stock index such as the Nikkei average and the S & P500 index, but most of the stock index will not determine the percentage incorporated based on the market capitalization of the company. But market capitalization regardless absolutely in the interests of our company, I will be greater because of its popular enterprise if the higher stock price rises.

America popular brand and of the IT bubble period of, as Livedoor was the case in Japan, stocks only popular precedes I did not have decent income raised is always present. If you are going to buy the stock by market capitalization rate, you encounter a problem that entity would offer much more than necessary the popular companies and overvalued stocks that are not accompanied.

"The stock market is always efficient, all good material also bad news are also woven into the stock price" efficient market hypothesis that, in the long-term span's the the street, but it is not at all satisfied in the short term. If you're incorporates all stock prices, because the supposed stock prices hardly move, not attached and that a variety of bubble has been going on in the world, a description of that market crash, such as Black Monday and the Lehman shock or happened does.

On the other hand, long-term in the world stock market there is data that settle to the plus before and after year average of 10%. To recite the behavioral finance theory in the short term, the stock market is up and down significantly from the psychological impact of the participants, in the long term will incorporate all of the good materials and bad news, along the economic growth stock it is going to rise. Various bubble sure to collapse, also from history that have been a number of crash also eventually recover, the market I can determine that there is a tendency to converge to the efficient state over time.

Former as there was a "fundamental faction" and the "Technical School" controversy, even among the efficient market hypothesis believers and behavioral finance theory believers now, it seems to have been arguing the correctness of each other's theory. However, the two theories, both are correct, also is there side both incorrect. Although correct behavioral finance theory in the short term, and I said that is correct efficient market hypothesis in the long term.

Efficient market hypothesis

The efficient market hypothesis, the stock market is always efficient, and the idea of good material also bad news also all but already factored into stock prices. Since the market is efficient, that is to study the financial aspects of the company (fundamental analysis) also, statistical data approach (technical analysis) also are correlated defined as it both meaningless, it was according to the movement of the entire market "index investment "what I am tied to a theory that is it the best.

Shares in the market there are two contradictory idea that the "fundamentals School" "Technical School" from the old days, each of believers each other and had waged a quarrel barren was also similar to the religious controversy. But efficient market hypothesis is denied both, has brought a third of reasoning that index investment in the world of investment theory.

And as statistics to boost the efficient market hypothesis, active funds should investment professional is operational, statistics that return is less than the index fund if the average has gone out.

Is said also to the Holy Scripture of the efficient market hypothesis and the "Wall Street of random Walker (Burton Malkiel Author)", "Stocks for the Long Run (Japanese title" equity investment that was positioned as is it optimal index investment from the analysis of the data of the past 200 years ", by Jeremy Siegel Author)" is such a hit, index investment in the past 10 years showed me at once spread also among the general investors.

Moreover index investment, may also be used to minimize the investors of effort and cost. Even without studying such as financial and technical indicators of the company, All you need to invest in an index fund, because I yield of the market average is obtained, there is no so effortless story. This recent years, from that, what efficient market hypothesis = index investment, is becoming a theory that's technique that yields the highest stock returns become dogma.

However, index investments that make a profit without any effort, from the financial industry such as an active fund manager has been criticized to be a "free rider (free riding)". First place in principle, it is because many of the active fund to invest with a firm financial analysis, technical analysis, it is why the stock market has become efficient. If accustomed index operation is overwhelming majority if, in order to reverse the market is inefficient, towards the return of the active fund should be the excellence.

However, the proportion of index investment in the stock market of the world is said to be about 10%, we are seen as highly unlikely to be the majority.

Index investment

Index investment and is, in performing the diversification of the strain is a way to reliably can be obtained market average equivalent performance at a lower cost.

The index investment, such as "Nikkei average" and "S & P500 (US)" and "Hang Seng Index (China, Hong Kong)", and then held the shares to be linked to the typical stock price index of the market. In this way, since the result of the equivalent index can be obtained, and investment way to take a reliable average point.

The investment trust that specializes in the index operation is called "index funds", also many of the ETF (exchange traded funds) is performing the index operation.


Active fund can not win in the index fund?

In recent years of research, investment trust to perform the index operation, is to leave the higher performance than conventional investment trust (active fund) has revealed.

Since the stock index is not represent the average of the market, some funds that exceed the index, the same it is a translation that comes out also fund below approximately the same number of index. Index funds to leave the always index and equivalent return, do not know how active fund exceeds or-below.

Moreover, since the active fund is expensive the cost of ownership (trust fees and success fees), even if higher than the index in the buying and selling of stock, you get there a lot also cases that falls below the index and subtracting the cost. Trust fees of typical index fund whereas a range of about 0.1 to 0.5 percent, because the trust fees of active fund even take 1-2%, it is to cost defeated.

From these results, the theory that "it's best to make the asset management in index mutual funds" is becoming the mainstream in recent years. Kano Warren Buffett also (own despite the genuine active management), it is about the general investors have said the comments should be operational in the center of index funds such as ETF, and.

But there is also a point that should be noted. The ETF that is listed in Japan, are also included those not in the index operation. Especially emerging ETF such as Shanghai stock ETF (1309) and Brazil ETF (1325), which is operated by those that do not hold shares of cash "linked notes", investment funds is absolutely if bankruptcy is guaranteed source of company note that there is a possibility that you do not come back is required.