The reason for the expected does not strike economists

In television and newspapers, economists (economist) and the future of the stock market and foreign exchange, I will teach you with a reason plausible. However, if people in the economic news of interest on a daily basis, it should be have realized that their expectations are not hit at all. Economists literally, should experts about the economy. Why their expectations are experts, or will not hit until about this?

First, one of the reasons, economists belonging to large organizations, along the flow of the necessity and the world "safe prediction" because only can not. For example, the stock market is in an upward trend of time in top form for that "This is because the bubble closed the hand" is a medium-s tall order. Speaking the expected, such as dampen economic boom, and then you Cry total Scandic from investors, in some cases because also caused danger.

To further add, mass media (especially television) in order to attract the audience, is always a strong tendency to over-report the trend of the world. Therefore in the bull market, the voice of professionals toot is ignored, just the voice of the festival scholars such as inflame the market has been reported, or else you built up a trend that it's of course.

So, is bullish forecast more than necessary when the stock market is upward trend is, (looks like) that pessimistic forecast increases at the time of crash I. However, since the rise and crash it too to go will change any tide, they expected it is a translation that become easily dislodged in the often.

Another reason, rather than being discussed on the basis of economic analysis in the economists, because there are guys that have said that convenient to yourself on TV and newspapers.

For example, economists say the "future $ 1 = yen goes up to 50 yen level!" Such as the extreme argument was based on the desire to "want you to yen has advanced" rather than expects the yen advances remark such is the. Nothing it is, you have a Japan government bonds, not necessarily only in the case of direct motivation like that, have a foreign currency selling in FX.

In an attempt Toriiro to large organizations and authorities, also not a few scholars who recite the convenient and become theory to its opponent. For example guys called "Bank of Japan patronized scholars", you advocated the theory that the yen's course. Then by defending the Bank of Japan policy, been able to continue to have good relations with the Bank of Japan executives, (such as off-the-record information is entered) As a result I benefits as an economist occurs. In this way, remarks that were based on their own interests will be referred to as the "position Talk" and "lantern articles".

This property is the same as such as professional baseball and horse racing commentator expected. Baseball commentator is everyone former professional baseball player, I think you make any statements like praise arguably baseball team, players had their own belongs to. The belittle the players are acquainted is to exacerbate the human relationship, if you are taking your mood of the team can be well "flatter", because there Even potentially become a future coach and director. Well as horse racing commentator, if tries to continue to have a crony with a specific target of data collection (trainer of jockeys and stables), I will not write the inevitable and critical articles to them.

Is not limited to the economist, the human that are speaking in the media, I often fellows that have a position talk on the basis of their own interests. Their is not opinion than truly receive, it is important to listen and read to back situation.