Chart analysis is not useful for stock price forecast of

If global classification of equity investments, to determine material the financial analysis of the company with the "fundamentals School", is divided into "Technical School" to the charts and statistical data approach to determine material. And also in the technical analysis, such as the RSI and Bollinger bands, and the idea that emphasizes the probability-statistical numbers, such as the dubious name of the method to be "Elliott Wave" from the law of the golden cross and inverted triangular preciousness and Granville, There is a concept that emphasizes the form of a stock chart.

And speaking from conclusion, chart analysis is almost useless without the stock price expectations, it is not just the occult.

The book chart analysis, we put the result of successful by analyzing the shape of the chart. However, it does not mean that the law is successful in all of the stocks. In the book of chart analysis, to never fail example is resting, it is not informed to be the laws to be successful in the heck what percentage of probability.

On the other hand, even in the same technical analysis, rather than in the form of a chart, in the method of statistical analysis, there is also a thing that there is credible. For example, Masaaki's advocate Saito "25-day moving average deviation method", "winning percentage 78.7%, average income + 7.58%" as a result of the verification for all stocks of up to 1983 - 2005 revealed the numerical value of have. Because it is numerical value that target share price of all issues for more than 20 years, we can say that there is a very credible data.

But "Granville" s of it, "Sakata (v) an act," such as Dano "Elliott Wave", in the technique to analyze the form of charts, data such as this as the actual probability of success is not revealed. It sounds plausible if it is explained from the chart of success example, but it's pointless but it does not have told the heck whether it is how much probability in valid, how much to fail.

More than not shown a clear data and rationale, chart analysis is humans who made it is not only arbitrarily created approach, ie the same as such as fortune-telling and horse racing bulging eyes expected, with said to be mere occult quotient.

By the way, in the books of Mr. Saito, supra, has been made the verification of the "Golden Cross" is an indicator of the most famous chart analysis. According to it, in the period 1983 to 2005, "lost the victory is 27,655 times 53,932 times (winning 33.9%), average income + 0.59%" Golden result of verification of the cross-trading in all stocks seems. It is a golden cross that are sometimes spoken in stock news, etc., but you can see that almost no profit is out from the data.