Golden Cross of winning percentage is actually very low

There is a "golden cross" the most well-known technical indicators are in stock investment. The Golden Cross, and that of passing on the long-term moving average line short-term moving average line situation. Usually long-term 25-day moving average, short-term is the moving average five days.

When the Golden Cross occurs, in order to be seen as the stock price began to rise trend, it is said that a sign of rising stock prices. There is no actually less likely to be described as such "Nikkei average has entered the Golden Cross" also to market commentary and analyst reports to be published, such as Yahoo Finance.

In practice, however, the probability of stock price rise after the Golden Cross, there is a shock of data that less than 5 percent. Saito Masaaki's book "winning 80% of the contrarian system trade-surgery", the verification data of the "stock price transition until the Golden Cross ⇒ dead cross" of all issues of 1983-2005 years have been marked. According to it, the performance of all after 81,587 times of the Golden Cross, was unusually low probability of winning percentage 33.9%. The average income was recorded 0.59 percent plus, this only worked a savings of time of super bull market 86 ~ 1989 and 2005, it is time other than was the statistical results that the case be negative often .

In other words, the most famous and technical indicators that are also referred to as "basic" in Japan, actually winning percentage is only about one third, it means that it is almost useless and to improve the timing of buying and selling. The reason for Golden Cross does not work is considered some, but it seems that it is great to be too famous has become a foe. Because, Golden Cross is probably an indication that all of the people that the equity investment is know, should everyone have seen the chart is aware of it. Then, because the occurrence likely stocks will more and more people buying and selling in anticipating, you will become difficult to function as an indicator.

This, and the high probability that put the peak a few days before the shareholders stocks ex-rights date, is exactly the same reason. That the preferential treatment stocks to rise toward the ex-rights date, therefore I've used widely known to the individual investors, multiplied by the movement (since after the ex-rights is surely share price to fall) Urinukeru just before investors This is because it has increased.

Also, the day before the NY Dow is easy to become if skyrocketing Nikkei average of the next day is "more ceiling", the majority of individual investors as well as institutional investors, the probability that the rise also Nikkei if the previous day's NY Dow goes up high that it was aware of, is the reason that forestall bias works.

Conversely, was proposed by Saito and "25-day moving average deviation method", such as "Economy Watchers investment" proposed by Seiji Noda, precisely because many indicators that investors are not strongly aware of, because its effect is sustained quotient. Of that famous too indicators and data, because they are anticipating enough to be known and if known to everyone, I the effect weakens.